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Where Capital Meets Climate
Weather-driven trading in European power, gas and carbon, built on DIANA, fifteen years of weather and market research. Operating under the FCA authorisation of Privium Fund Management.
15 yrs
Research behind DIANA
24 yrs
Energy trading
7
Markets
2008
Privium, est.
A return driven by weather and renewables, not by equity, credit or interest-rate cycles.
Strategy
Investment approach
AEI trades the gap between what the weather delivers physically and what the financial markets have priced, in European power, TTF gas, Henry Hub and EU carbon.
Weather now sets the price
Renewable growth has replaced cost-based pricing with weather-driven pricing. Windy, sunny periods push prices towards zero; calm periods bring scarcity prices. This volatility is structural and follows the weather rather than equities, interest rates or growth.
Data-centre demand, the end of Russian pipeline gas and Europe's dependence on LNG have strengthened the effect. ERA5 reanalysis since 1990 shows calm periods becoming longer and more frequent, leaving gas and LNG as the supply of last resort in wind droughts.
DIANA's reading of the weather
DIANA identifies shifts in the large-scale weather patterns that matter for energy: wind droughts, cold outbreaks, polar-vortex disruptions and sudden stratospheric warmings. It works from the coming weeks to the next year: a weekly price direction per market up to five weeks ahead, past years that match the atmosphere (Select) or point the other way (NoGo) and snow indices for the season ahead, the Nordic hydrology six to nine months out, and a price model that tests whether quarterly and next-year contracts are priced in line with the weather, the hydrology and the risks.
The strongest opportunities come when the weather signal, the hydrology and the market's response line up. AEI concentrates capital in those periods and trades smaller, with tighter stops, outside them.
Then: cost-based pricing
Price set by the cost of the marginal fuel. Predictable, with little weather effect.
Now: the weather sets the price
German day-ahead power in 2026 averaged about €77/MWh on the windiest fifth of days and €130 on the calmest. The move between the two is the volatility AEI trades.
German figures: DIANA's data store (ENTSO-E prices, wind and solar), 2026.
Market context
A structural opportunity
The volatility AEI trades is not a passing phase. Several long-term forces sustain it, and we expect them to persist through 2030.
Supply is changing
Germany's 80% renewable target replaces cost-based pricing with weather-driven swings, and France's ageing nuclear fleet adds outage risk that spreads across the coupled Continental market in cold spells.
The Nordic hydro surplus that once buffered Europe is being absorbed by data centres and electrification. In dry years the Nordics can turn net importers, so every region can be short at the same time, and with new supply mostly wind and solar, the weather decides whether supply meets demand.
Demand and market structure
Data-centre demand adds steady baseload that sharpens weather-driven scarcity. Without Russian pipeline gas, TTF depends on LNG and is exposed to US weather, Gulf Coast hurricanes and global competition for cargoes all year round.
Growing exchange volumes add capacity to trade, while more automated trading widens short-term gaps between the weather fundamentals and financial prices.
Four forces converging
NOW
Rising demand
Data centres and electrification lift power demand faster than the grid adapts. The resulting volatility is what AEI trades.
2027
The LNG question
Markets price a lasting gas surplus from 2026–27. Rising demand and wind droughts can absorb it, and scarcity returns in periods.
2027+
End of the Nordic buffer
Data centres and electrification use up the hydro surplus. In dry years the region imports, and all regions can be short at once.
2026+
Weak macro, volatile power
Weather-driven volatility moves energy away from traditional assets, an opportunity that does not depend on the economic cycle.
€77 vs €130
German day-ahead per MWh · windiest vs calmest fifth of days, 2026
Weeks to next year
From weekly direction to quarterly and next-year contracts
6–9 months
Nordic hydrology outlook
Figures: DIANA (ENTSO-E prices, wind and solar), 2026.
Trading universe
Markets and instruments
Futures in seven connected energy markets, each with its own weather drivers and liquidity. The core is Nordic, German and French power. The universe grows as the team and the models grow.
Nordic power
A hydro-based system where precipitation, snowmelt, temperature and wind set the balance, now reshaped by data centres and wind growth. Stable large-scale weather favours a base position with shorter-term corrections around it.
Continental and Iberian power
German, French and Spanish power, the core of European pricing. High wind and solar shares create weekly and seasonal swings when the weather turns, and Spain adds Iberian solar and Mediterranean weather. Traded directionally and as spreads.
European gas
Europe's benchmark gas contract, exposed to weather all year through LNG: winter cold and calm, summer heat and drought, US freeze-offs and Gulf Coast hurricanes. The deepest and most liquid market in the portfolio.
Henry Hub and EU carbon
The US gas benchmark, central to global LNG pricing and moved by Arctic outbreaks, freeze-offs and hurricanes that carry over to TTF. EU carbon is traded selectively, when it moves with power and gas.
Capital allocation
Allocation is weighted by exchange liquidity, Value-at-Risk and price volatility. Exposure limits, drawdown limits and capacity per market are set out in the investor presentation.
Process
The trading cycle
Three layers of analysis, with a risk check at each step. The cycle repeats as each view is confirmed or broken.
Weather
Is a shift in the weather pattern coming?
Physical
What does it mean for supply and demand, and what is already priced?
Financial
Where are the flows and positions in the market?
Act and review
Scale up, hold or exit, and feed the result back into the models.
Risk managed at every step
No committee; decisions in minutes
Every cycle refines the models
Risk oversight by Privium
Technology
DIANA
Digital Intelligent Artificial Numerical Advisor
DIANA reads the weather pattern, checks it against the physics and the fundamentals, and estimates the likely price effect and the risks before any capital moves. One system, from global forecast to trading view, across European power, TTF, Henry Hub and US hurricane risk.
From the coming weeks to the next year
WEEKS
Weekly direction
A price direction for each market from the current week to five weeks ahead (W+0 to W+5), updated twice a day.
SEASON
Select, NoGo and snow
Past years that match today's atmosphere or point the other way, and the Classical Snow and DIANA Snow indices for the winter ahead.
6–9 MONTHS
Hydrology
Nordic reservoirs, inflow and water values, and what they mean for power prices through the coming seasons.
QUARTERS TO NEXT YEAR
Price model and risk
Price sensitivity and risk for quarterly and next-year contracts: are forward prices in line with the weather and hydrology scenarios? Shown in the DIANA Markets reports.
The problem DIANA solves
Weather-to-energy analysis is usually done by hand at each step: a meteorologist reads the models, an analyst estimates the effect on generation, a trader decides on the price. Each hand-off adds delay and judgement, and by the time the view reaches the trade, the market has often moved.
What it changes
DIANA runs the whole chain, from forecast data through pattern detection, energy balance and price response, as one process checked against ERA5 reanalysis since 1990. It covers many markets at once and keeps a dated record of every step. The aim: quick reactions, controlled drawdowns and returns driven by the weather rather than the economic cycle.
Forecasts · patterns · analogue years
Global weather models, atmospheric oscillations and ERA5 reanalysis since 1990.
↓
Pattern detection
Select and NoGo years; weekly price direction per market, W+0 to W+5.
↓◆ RISK CHECK
Energy balance · global weather · cross-market links
Temperature, precipitation, wind, solar, inflow and reservoirs; US and Asian patterns; hurricane risk.
↓◆ RISK CHECK
Price stack
NP · DE · FR · ES · TTF · HH: energy surplus or deficit turned into price response.
↓◆ RISK CHECK
Trading view
Confidence, entry, size, exit and risk limits.
Automated
From forecast data to trading view without manual hand-offs, removing the delay between the weather signal and the trade.
Documented
Every step is checked against ERA5 reanalysis since 1990, with a full, dated trail from weather input to trading view.
Broad
European power, TTF, Henry Hub, US and Asian weather, and hurricane risk, covered together.
Kept in-house
Developed by TradeWpower AS, which AEI plans to acquire. The best signals stay with AEI's trading; analysis licences cover the running costs.
Built to be checked
Every DIANA analysis is written to a dated record before the outcome is known, and analyses and trades are documented every day. Where the history behind a signal is too thin, DIANA reports no call rather than a number. The final safeguard sits outside the strategy: Privium's independent risk oversight. We take qualified investors through this record in the full presentation. DIANA is live at app.tradewpower.no.
Risk management
Capital protection first
Risk is managed at every stage of analysis, execution and portfolio construction, and the limits are built into DIANA. Protecting capital comes first; returns are sought within that limit.
Layer 1: the life of a trade
Identify and enter
Stop-loss 0.4–0.5% of capital
- Weather, physical and financial signals
- Small first allocation
- Base positions with weekly corrections
Build stepwise
Stop-loss 0.6–0.8% once deployed
- Wait for confirmation
- Add only on a confirmed view
- Exit on opposing fundamentals
Scale
Full size when signals align
- Volume tied to signal strength and VaR
- Fast build on persistent shifts
- Larger only when all signals agree
Protect and exit
Capital first
- Early partial profit-taking
- Strict exit discipline
- View broken: exit at once
Layer 2: portfolio limits
−5%
Annual drawdown
Hard internal limit
2:1
Reward to risk
Minimum before entry
30–50%
Capital in use
Free capital kept for corrections
Privium
Independent oversight
Since 2008
Daily
Monitoring
Weather, markets and risk
Tail risk
Risks outside the weather, such as nuclear outages, Norwegian pipeline disruption, geopolitical escalation and infrastructure failure, are handled with scenario plans set in advance rather than decisions made under pressure. Exposure is reduced in periods of high geopolitical risk, spreads reduce tail exposure compared with outright positions, and position size is tied to liquidity: no position is larger than can be exited under stressed conditions. Privium Fund Management provides independent risk oversight.
Results and risk figures
The test-portfolio trade log (€50M notional, paper capital, gross of costs), risk metrics and Value-at-Risk analysis are available to qualified professional investors on request.
Structure
How it is organised
Privium's FCA-regulated platform, combined with the DIANA research that AEI plans to acquire. The strategy and the independent risk control sit in separate companies by design.
Adaptive Energy Investments
London · England and Wales
Strategy and trading company that plans to acquire TradeWpower AS and DIANA. Managed accounts and a fund for professional investors, run under Privium's FCA authorisation.
TradeWpower AS
Lillehammer, Norway · since 2016
The developer of DIANA. AEI plans to acquire 100% of the company, and with it DIANA, its research, its data and its analysis clients.
Privium Fund Management
United Kingdom · Netherlands · est. 2008
FCA-authorised. Independent risk management, regulatory compliance, KYC/AML, NAV calculation and fund administration.
Team
Principals and platform partner
Both principals analyse and trade: a meteorologist who trades, and a trader who runs his own analysis. Privium Fund Management provides the regulated platform.
Weather and analysis
Ivan Føre Svegaarden, PhD
CEO and Chief Analyst
PhD in meteorology (University of Oslo, 2012) and fifteen years of weather and power-market research. Production planner and energy meteorologist at E-CO Energi, 2011–16. Built DIANA and has traded Nordic and German power on his own models since 2016, including a Nordic portfolio for an institutional counterparty in 2021–22. Extended DIANA to TTF and Henry Hub.
Execution and risk
Jan Erik Pedersen, MSc
Chairman and Head of Portfolio Management
24 years of commodity trading in European power, gas, oil, coal and emissions, on desks including Statkraft, Alfakraft Fonder and Rosnor Energy. 20 of 22 trading periods profitable since 2001, $63.2M cumulative P&L (USD, gross of fees). Runs his own technical and fundamental analysis and risk frameworks built for weather-driven pricing. Full record on request.
Platform partner
Clayton Heijman
Group CEO and Director, Privium Fund Management
Founded Privium Fund Management in 2008. Privium supports more than 30 investment teams worldwide with over $3bn under management, with investment management licences in London, Amsterdam and Hong Kong. For AEI, Privium provides the FCA-authorised platform, compliance, independent risk oversight and fund administration.
Privium figures: priviumfund.com.
Contact
Investor enquiries
The full investor presentation, market analysis, individual track records and terms are available to qualified professional investors.
Ivan Føre Svegaarden
CEO and Chief Analyst
Adaptive Energy Investments
ifs@adaptiveenergyinvestment.comJan Erik Pedersen
Chairman and Head of Portfolio Management
Adaptive Energy Investments
jep@adaptiveenergyinvestment.com